Moneyball, cricketainment, conflicted commentators and Nass in Bollywood

After six months of silence, it's time to get back to blogging. Before any real writing of my own, however, first a bit about some interesting cricket reading. Of articles that have caught my attention of late, the most thought-provoking is a column by Mike Atherton in the Times. Athers gives a fascinating glimpse of the insight England coach Andy Flower has gained by employing a full time statistical analyst (Nathan Leamon), inspired by the methods of the famous baseball coach Billy Beane, of Moneyball fame. If - like me - you're interested in mathematics and financial markets, you'd be excited to learn that Flower (with Leamon's help) uses Monte Carlo simulations to aid his decision-making. Even if you're not a "numbers person," however, you'd probably be intrigued by Leamon's claim that

"If I’ve achieved one thing, it is to make our decision-makers stop and think before automatically batting first on winning the toss... the advantage of batting first simply does not exist any more. The figures show that the advantage of bowling first can be as much as 20 per cent, and nothing else we can do as coaches can influence the game as much as that."

I'd been meaning to read Moneyball for some time and ordered myself a copy of a few minutes after I first read Athers' article. I may even go see the movie when it's released in the UK next month. The ideas popularised by Michael Lewis' book revolutionised baseball management. Looks like cricket coaching is up next.

Speaking of revolutionary events, apparently Saturday was something of a landmark in the nascent history of "cricketainment," as London's 02 Arena played host to the "Titans of Cricket." According to the Observer's Barney Ronay,

"This travelling spectacular with its "cricket-related tasks" and roster of basking greats (Flintoff! Afridi! Gilchrist! Vincent!) is not cricket at all but is instead cricket-related product, crickertainment, crick-bizz. It is perhaps best seen as a taster for people who find the IPL a bit too grown-up and complex. This is cricket on crack, the Ashes on acid, a moment to just sit back and let them crickertain you."

I don't think I'll be swapping Test tickets to go see the Titans any time soon, but to be honest the event does sound like it would have been fun to watch. Perhaps it might also have cheered me up from my depression at the state of Sri Lankan cricket at the moment. Peter Roebuck is someone whom I criticised pretty fiercely a couple of years ago, but his bravely blunt and depressingly accurate description of Sri Lanka's current predicament has served as a reminder to me of why he's so highly regarded as a cricket columnist.

"[New coach Geoff] Marsh begins his tenure with the last remaining great players near the end of their time and tether. The two best bowlers the country has produced have withdrawn, and the team has not won any of its last nine Tests (though as the new captain correctly points out, it has only been beaten twice in that period). Sri Lanka are not at the top or the bottom, but they do seem to be on the way down. Nor do they have the resources to affect a swift turnaround..."

One issue Roebuck touches on in an aside about Tony Greig is the problem of commentators having "financial interests that may influence their opinions," as Jarrod Kimber (Mr Cricketwithballs) puts it in a Cricinfo piece on the same topic. I wholeheartedly agree with Jrod's plea that we should be told of commentators' "allegiances to players, or boards, when they are discussing them." He highlights the involvement of Roshan Abeysinghe, Ian Botham, Alec Stewart and Michael Vaughan as players' agents/managers, Tony Greig's position as a tourism ambassador for Sri Lanka and Ravi Shastri and Sunil Gavaskar's BCCI contracts.

"The problem is that if we don't know who is getting paid by whom, how can we make an educated decision on whom to trust? Did the batsman miss that brilliant unplayable ball as described by the commentator, or was it, in fact, a career-defining terrible shot? If we know the background, we can at least have a chance of seeing through the subtext, but without that we are just being treated like fools by the very people who have made their money from our subscription fees."

And finally... it appears Nasser Hussain is another commentator with an allegiance to a player, except a player of a slightly different sort - a character in a Bollywood movie. In Patiala House, Akshay Kumar plays a British-born Sikh who goes against his father's wishes to pursue his dream of playing cricket for England. Click below to see how Akshay gets selected (apparently on the basis of one over in the nets), much to Nass' cringetastic delight:

IPL time: am I a Tusker or a Super King?

It's that time of year again.  Less than a week to catch one's breath after the World Cup and the IPL is already kicking off.  This time around I find myself with a dilemma over whom to support.  Over the past three seasons, I've become a pretty serious Chennai Super Kings fan.  Despite the major reshuffles elsewhere, CSK have kept the vast majority of their squad together, so it's likely I'll be rooting for them.  However, one of the few players they did lose was Murali, who is now going to be playing in a team captained by fellow Sri Lankan Mahela Jayawardene.  I'll have to wait and see which way my heartstrings tug me when the two sides face off, but in today's opener, there's no question whom I'll be cheering on.  Come on the Super Kings.

Some thoughts on the World Cup final

Yesterday's result was pretty disappointing for me, but I still managed to enjoy watching what was probably the best World Cup final since 1992.  I like a lot of the Indian players and was happy that Sachin finally got to pick up a winner's medal - and do so in front of a Mumbai crowd.  India were the better team both on the day and across the tournament as a whole.  Their superb batting line-up was the main reason for their success but importantly they also stepped up the discipline levels of their bowling and fielding in the knockout stages.

As for exactly where the game was won, the thing that really stood out for me was the contrast between the way Gautam Gambhir batted after the fall of Sehwag and Sachin's wickets and Sri Lanka's approach in the first 15-20 overs of their own innings.  On the biggest cricketing stage of all, Gambhir had the guts to keep attacking despite the early setbacks.  He didn't blaze away wildly but did take take calculated risks, advancing down the wicket and hitting over the infield frequently enough to keep India up with the required run rate. That Gambhir had the confidence to do this was partly down to the fact that he knew his side had plenty of batting to come.  Sri Lanka, on the other hand, seemed all too aware that in Angelo Mathews' absence, their tail was rather long and had to be shielded.  While there was clearly a need for caution, I can't help thinking that Tharanga and Dilshan could have been more positive in their approach at the start.

There's been a lot of criticism of Sri Lanka's team selection by Sky and BBC pundits, which I think is largely unfounded.  It seems likely to me that most of these pundits are (understandably) unfamiliar with the ins and outs of the 33 ODIs Sri Lanka had played against India between January 2008 and yesterday's final.  While I might still have preferred to see Ajantha Mendis in the side, including Suraj Randiv was a perfectly rational move, given both his recent record against India and the difference between the playing conditions in Colombo and Mumbai.  The slowish pitch and massive boundaries at the Premadasa Stadium were tailor-made for Mendis and Herath to choke opposition sides, while the truer batting surface and smaller ground at Wankhede would have rendered them less effective.  Randiv, a taller spinner who generates more bounce, was a reasonable bet.

Quarter final team previews

West Indies

Roach, Sammy, Benn, Russell, Rampaul and Bishoo have produced a number of good bowling performances.  A Gayle or Pollard onslaught is just the sort of thing that could cause the wheels could come off for Pakistan in the field, but my guess is that Afridi, Gul and co will stop that happening.

Pakistan
Anyone else noticed that Shahid Afridi often stands with his arms crossed when being interviewed at post-match ceremonies?  Is this in a vain attempt to look serious?  That said, while his batting is crazy, his bowling really is pretty serious, and Pakistan are pretty serious contenders.  They've cruised quietly  to the top of their group and now have a very winnable quarter ahead of them. I don't know why people didn't take more note of them earlier.  Be Afridi.  Be very Afridi.

India
Batting-wise, the top order's in top nick, but the middle order men can't middle it.  Here's what Zaheer Khan had to say yesterday about the bowling: "As a bowling unit, I think I am doing well."  You have to say that's a pretty entertaining Freudian slap in the face for Harbhajan, Sreesanth and co.

Australia
Likely to be presented with a juicy greentop in Ahmedabad, tailor-made for their speedsters.  Not.  Crumbled against Indian spinners in a warm-up game in Bangalore.  If Harbhajan remembers how to take wickets, I'd expect a repeat.  But beware Mike Hussey.  I repeat: beware Mike Hussey.

My wishful thinking

Sachin, Sri Lanka, Sambit, painkillers and the choke'o'meter

The World Cup is in full swing and I have to say I'm loving it.  Arguments about the format and the involvement of associate nations will rage on and on, but for me, this is still the most important tournament in the cricketing calendar and the current edition has already produced plenty of drama and excitement.

In addition to the on-field action, I've also enjoyed the accompanying feast of cricket writing.  Here are some snippets of my favourite pieces from the last week or so, along with links to the full articles.

Mike Marqusee - The "symbolical" cricketer: Sachin Tendulkar

99 down, one to go.  It seems only a matter of time before Sachin Tendulkar becomes the first man to score a ton of international tons, and it would be fitting if he reached the milestone in a World Cup match on home soil.  The tribute pieces will come flooding in, but few will be as thought-provoking as Mike Marqusee's recent take on Sachin's unique status as a "symbolical" cricketer.

"Tendulkar’s personal achievements were represented as a triumph for India as a whole, a sign of the country advancing on the world stage – like Indian corporations opening plants in Europe or the USA. Unwittingly and unwillingly, he found himself at the epicentre of a popular culture shaped by the intertwined growth of a consumerist middle class and an assertive, sometimes aggressive form of national identity. National aspirations and national frustrations were poured into his every performance, and this during a period in which the nation passed through some very dark moments (Kashmir since 1989, Ayodhya in 1992, Mumbai in 1993, Gujarat in 2002, Mumbai in 2009). How he’s not been crushed by it all remains at least in part a mystery."

Sachin sees no evil, Sri Lankans sense a storm

Speaking to NDTV the other day, Sachin Tendulkar said the following:

"In my 21 years of international cricket, I have never heard of any Indian player being approached by bookies."

Really? I guess Sachin can't have played more than a handful of matches with Ajay Sharma, so perhaps the latter's easy to forget. However, Sachin played 131 international matches with Manoj Prabhakar, 191 with Ajay Jadeja and a whopping 292 with Mohammad Azharuddin. He amassed more caps, runs, centuries, catches and wickets under Azhar than he has under any other captain before or since, and it's not as if Azhar's admission of guilt and subsequent life ban happened behind close doors.

"See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil," the saying goes. Sachin may do no evil, on account of which he gets plenty of richly deserved praise, but his recent statement does make me wonder about the whole see no monkey, hear no monkey, speak no monkey episode...

Final analysis

The stands were full and covered with billboards of his face and banners wishing him good luck. A massive electronic counter had been set up to display his wicket tally, just in case anyone was in any doubt. His wife, his son, his mum, his dad, his mother-in-law and his President had turned up to cheer him on. A red carpet was laid out for him when he walked onto the field, and the fireworks were in place around the ground. No pressure, then.

After getting number 799 in no time, he bowled 141 wicketless deliveries, 44 of them while India were 9 wickets down. With his 44039th and very last ball in Test cricket, he took number 800.

Final analysis: 7339.5 Overs, 1794 Maidens, 18180 Runs, 800 Wickets.

Not bad. I will miss him.

Murali's greatest hits on Cricinfo

A little over two weeks from now, Muttiah Muralitharan will take the field in a Test match for the very last time. I must say I'm not surprised by the news that Murali is retiring a little earlier than previously planned, but I'm nonetheless rather saddened by it.

I believe there's a strong case for considering Murali the greatest spinner Test cricket has ever seen, though clearly some may believe there's a strong case for considering me a greatly biased judge. At any rate, Cricinfo have just published a piece of mine - a combination of a pair of blog posts I wrote back in January - which I hope adds something to the debate.

Royalists, Thomians and Stallions

The 131st Royal-Thomian

When IPL 3 gets underway this weekend, most of the cricket world will be on Youtube, watching the site's live webcasts of the goings on in Mumbai and Mohali. Over in Sri Lanka, however, virtually all cricket lovers will be following the climax of a different match. Saturday is the final day of the Royal-Thomian, the biggest event in Colombo's cricketing calendar. The annual schoolboy contest between Royal College and St Thomas' is older than the Ashes and unlike Eton vs Harrow has never been interrupted by war. This is 131st consecutive year in which the game has been played, with St Thomas' ahead 34-33 in the overall tally. Christopher Martin-Jenkins conveyed a sense of the atmosphere at the event in a Wisden Special Report in 1994, entitled "Sri Lanka's great game:"

Murali’s Greatest Hits of the Noughties

(A version of this article appeared on Cricinfo's "Inbox" blog in July 2010)

Two in two in the twilight
10 for 148 v Pakistan, Peshawar, 2000

One over of play left on the fourth day at Peshawar and a low-scoring match was delicately poised. A fiery Shoaib Akhtar had restricted Sri Lanka to 268 in their first innings and Pakistan had then slipped from 137 for 2 to 199 all out, with Murali the wrecker-in-chief. Thanks to Russell Arnold’s battling 99, Sri Lanka had set Pakistan a stiff victory target of 294, but at 220 for 6, the home side were very much in the game. Saeed Anwar was back at the crease after retiring hurt earlier in the innings and alongside him was Yousuf Youhana (now known as Mohammad Yousuf), who had counterattacked brilliantly, smashing three sixes and eight fours on his way to 88.

Enter Murali. Flighting the ball invitingly and generating massive turn off a slowing wicket, he trapped Yousuf leg before, before getting Waqar Younis to prod the very next ball to silly point. It took Sri Lanka just ten balls to finish off proceedings the next morning. Murali missed out on a hat-trick but did pick up the last wicket, sealing the match and the series.

Murali’s Greatest Hits of the Noughties - Preview

(A version of this article appeared on Cricinfo's "Inbox" blog in July 2010)

In a few days’ time, Cricinfo will reveal whom their 60-strong panel of experts has selected as their Cricketer of the 2000s. Taking Test and ODI performances together (as the website appears to be doing), I would whittle the field down to a shortlist of three candidates – Ricky Ponting, Muttiah Muralitharan and Jacques Kallis – whom I personally rate as the decade’s leading batsman, bowler and all-rounder, respectively. Cricinfo outlines the argument for each, and my hunch is that Ponting’s list of accomplishments as leader of the dominant team of the era will earn him top spot. Last week, he notched up a record-breaking 42nd win as a Test captain to go with victories in two World Cups and two Champions Trophies as an ODI skipper.

If separate prizes were awarded for each of game's formats, however, I would give the trophy for champion Test cricketer to Murali. The “Milestone Man” took one and a half times as many wickets as Makhaya Ntini, the next highest wicket-taker in the Noughties, at a McGrath-like average and Waqar-esque strike rate. As Cricinfo points out, he remains top of the pile even if “cheap” wickets taken against Zimbabwe* and Bangladesh are excluded. His astonishing 20 ten-wicket hauls in 84 matches include at least one against every Test-playing nation. He won more Man-of-the-Match and Man-of-the-Series awards than any other player and propelled Sri Lanka from close to the bottom of the Test rankings to within a series win of top spot. What is more, he achieved all this in the “Age of the Bat.” If “55 is the new 50” as far as batting averages are concerned, just how good is a bowling average of 23.48 against the top eight teams? To my mind, Murali was the decade’s greatest match-winner by some distance, as well as its “greatest joy-giver.”

Smells like teen spirit

(A version of this article appeared on Cricinfo's "Inbox" blog in January 2010)

Pakistan’s Mohammad Amir should bring a smile to the faces of cricket fans in the decade ahead

Six months ago, I was watching from the lower tier of the Grandstand at Lord’s as Mohammad Amir ran in to bowl the first ball of the ICC World Twenty20 Final. I nervously reminded my brother, who was sitting next to me, that I had earlier picked out Pakistan as the team most likely to halt Sri Lanka’s march towards victory. I knew that unlike the other semi-finalists (South Africa and West Indies), Pakistan were used to facing Sri Lanka’s unorthodox bowling attack, and although Sri Lanka had come out on top when the two sides met in the group stages, I was wary that Shahid Afridi’s sensational catch against New Zealand had sparked the kind of hot streak that always makes Pakistan a dangerous proposition at the business end of big tournaments.

But if I was nervous, how did Mohammad Amir feel? The left arm quick was just 17 and his international career barely two weeks old. Here he was in a major final at Lord’s. The outfield was a lush, brilliant green, but the stands were even greener, thanks to the masses of flag-waving, klaxon-sounding, Zindabad-shouting, Pakistan fans. Over in Pakistan itself, a nation deprived of international cricket after the Lahore attacks was no doubt in front of its TV sets, while up in the Sky Sports commentary box, Amir’s mentor Wasim Akram was at the microphone. On strike, awaiting Amir’s first ball was the Player of the Tournament, Tillakaratne Dilshan, who up until then had sliced, diced and daringly Dilscooped anything that had been served up to him.

How would the teenager begin?